![]() ![]() The best example to counter this is Germany: in German economy, the secondary sector has sharply declined since the 1950s, but not quite to the level that Fourastié predicted due to Germany's high exports.Īnother Fourastié's false prediction states that the tertiary sector would always place high demands on employees in terms of education, which is not the case, since the service occupations also include cleaning services, shoeshining, parcel delivery service etc. When he conceived of the theory in the 1930s, however, he did not foresee the enormous technological progress made in the service sector, such as invention of the modern computer bringing with it the digital revolution.įourastié's false prognosis is that there will be no country in the highly developed third phase which also has a significant secondary sector. Furthermore, four incorrect predictions can be found in his book on the subject: įourastié predicted that the transition from the secondary to the tertiary sector would eliminate the problem of unemployment as, in his opinion, this sector could not be rationalized. ![]() Germany's Federal Statistical Office study shows the following employment proportions for 2014: primary sector at 1.5%, secondary sector at 24.6%, and tertiary sector at 73.9%. Various empirical studies seemingly confirm the three-sector hypothesis, but employment in the primary sector fell far more than Fourastié predicted. It is replaced by the growing demands of the tertiary sector, where productivity growth is slower. The primary and secondary sectors are increasingly dominated by automation, and the demand for workforce numbers falls in these sectors. Structural transformation according to Fourastié The rise of the post-industrial economy in which an increasing proportion of economic activity is not directly related to physical goods has led some economists to expand the model by adding a fourth quaternary or fifth quinary sectors, while others have ceased to use the model. In highly developed countries with a high income, the tertiary sector dominates the total output of the economy. Countries in a more advanced state of development, with a medium national income, generate their income mostly in the secondary sector. ![]() Countries with a low per capita income are in an early state of development the main part of their national income is achieved through production in the primary sector. Īccording to the three-sector model, the main focus of an economy's activity shifts from the primary, through the secondary and finally to the tertiary sector. It has been criticised as inappropriate as a representation of the economy in the 21st century. The model was developed by Allan Fisher, Colin Clark, and Jean Fourastié in the first half of the 20th century, and is a representation of an industrial economy. The three-sector model in economics divides economies into three sectors of activity: extraction of raw materials ( primary), manufacturing ( secondary), and service industries which exist to facilitate the transport, distribution and sale of goods produced in the secondary sector ( tertiary). ![]()
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